By Peter Goodchild on countercurrents.org
Yes, there are other factors beside oil to consider in the Great Crash. We live in a morass of bad politics, bad economics, and bad education (and bad news media that spoon-feed us with half-truths), and we elect thieves and liars to guide us. But the loss of oil, which is almost the only support of our unique industrial society, will be the factor that brings all the rest down.
Transitional Silliness
The transition to global collapse should not been seen in terms of middle-class Country Elegance. There are no “transition towns” that acquire food, clothing, or shelter without large quantities of fossil fuels somewhere in the background.
Although we should all be preparing for the worst, it seems that some of us are heading into Eco-Silliness. For the most part, “transition towns” (a.k.a. “eco-villages” etc.) are just make-believe. Without fossil fuels, any country can support only about 4 people per hectare of arable land, as David Pimentel has explained in great detail. That puts many countries at well beyond the maximum sustainable size. What is going to happen to the excess population between now and the year 2030 (when oil production will be down to half of its present level)? Answer: either emigration or starvation.
The post-oil world will be much grimmer than these people imagine, and that is partly because they are not looking at the big picture. Hydrocarbons are the entire substructure of modern society. Electricity comes largely from coal or natural gas. The energy for mining comes mainly from diesel fuel, or it is transmitted through electricity. So without fossil fuels there will be no electricity, and without those same fossil fuels there will be no metals. We’re looking at something less than the above-mentioned Country Elegance.
We are inclined to agree, and disagree. Permaculture practises are far more efficient than any other method of agriculture/horticulture. 4 people per hectare seems a little low, but we must recognise that if we are forced to change our lifestyles by peak oil and climate change, civilisation can do a lot of damage to the world before the oil runs out, and their won’t be resources available to ease the transition. If we start even now to put our energy towards transition, its still going to be a lot more painful for most of us than it would have been had we used oil over the last 30 years to build local horticulture systems, orchards, public transport, rainwater collecting, sustainable education, composting facilities etc.
But no, our glorious leaders have done their utmost to hide this from us, and to waste so much wealth to create roads to nowhere. Channelling wealth into the hands of a few, and destroying local communities has been the reality, exporting our stupid system around the whole world, and dumbing us down into mindless consumers.
Primitive Technology
One reason why I’m unimpressed by most survivalist or primitive-technology books is that they say very little about how to get food. Perhaps that’s because it’s easy to talk about roots and berries, but not easy to explain that getting food may include hunting, trapping, and fishing. At least, that’s certainly true in North America north of about latitude 45, since the climate and soil are largely unsuitable for agriculture. It’s also true for any other geographical area that doesn’t have naturally fertile soil and good weather. But the problem for the writer is that hunting and trapping — and perhaps even fishing — are politically incorrect. We aren’t supposed to be murdering cute little animals, we’re supposed to buy our meat wrapped in cellophane, which is somehow not the same thing. The average survivalist book therefore teaches its readers how to make bowls and baskets but doesn’t tell them how to avoid starving to death in the meantime.
Unfortunately, we have been very good at cutting down forests and privatising all things traditionally held in common. Hunting may be a solution for a few people, but if everyone started expecting to eat meat that they caught themselves, every day, there would very soon be very little wildlife left. Permaculture and sustainable organic smallscale horticulture can feed small groups of people with surprisingly little work or skills. We do need to learn those skills, more than how to make traps and arrows, which are more likely to end up being used to steal vegetables than to hunt non-existant game.
