Dismantle Civilisation

by Shaun Chamberlin, on darkoptimism.org

Lately I seem to be encountering many climate change activists who have a blind spot when it comes to peak oil. Friends of the Earth appear to be particularly prone to this.

They claim that climate change is overwhelmingly urgent (no arguments from me there) and so that the depletion of fossil fuels is largely irrelevant. In fact they argue that it can only be good news, limiting the availability of these dangerous substances which have the potential to destabilise our climate.

But this ignores the reason why humanity is so loathe to wean itself off these fuels in the first place. They are exceptionally potent energy sources which greatly increase our ability to change our human instructure and shape the world around us. Energy is perhaps best defined as the ability to do work, and there is much work to be done in the transition to a low-carbon way of life.

Imagine that we simply immediately ceased the extraction of fossil fuels - as the climate change imperative might appear to demand. We would see unbelievable human suffering as the lifeblood of our fossil fuel based societies dried up. Our critical infrastructure for food supply, transportation, heating, irrigation, electricity and so on would all fail catastrophically.

So there is clearly a tension between addressing climate change and addressing peak oil. The earlier we reach fossil fuel supply limits – whether geological or voluntary – the better for climate change, but the more painful the ‘peak oil’ adaptation problems, and the higher the oil price.

As supply limitations prompt oil price rises, more and more countries (and ultimately individuals) are priced out of the market, leaving only those with enough money able to get the oil their lifestyles demand. Economists call this ‘demand destruction’, and it is the mechanism the market uses to close the widening gap between supply and demand.

We agree. If all oil dried up tomorrow there would be huge levels of starvation and distress amongst the people who have no connection to their food and water resources. That is why we are encouraging people to grow food and think about where their necessities come from. But the more oil we burn, and the longer this system of exploitation prevails, the more extreme the climate will become and the more species will be extinct… and so on. That is also why we are encouraging people to grow food etc….

Ideally, a voluntary switch by the masses to a more sustainable lifesyle would be the best outcome in the near future. But we aren’t naive enough to expect this to happen, not while govts do their best to ignore the issues, and the endless drive for economic growth is shoved down our throats. Perhaps just enough of us will be equipped with tools and skills to step in and help when the proverbial shit hits the fan?

Thankfully though, there are things we can do to ameliorate both climate change and peak oil simultaneously. If we begin to wean our communities off their oil addiction voluntarily then we reduce demand, and thus reduce the need for the more painful varieties of demand destruction. We lessen the desperation for increased oil supplies and so make it easier to consider the necessary step of leaving some of it where it is as a response to climate change. The more ways we can find to reduce demand, the less difficult the global supply side dilemma becomes.

It is these win-win solutions that climate change campaigners should be fighting for, and in fact they might well find that peak oil helps their cause.

Try as we might to ignore peak oil, the stark reality is that the world will be getting by on around half its current level of oil production in 20 years time. And like it or not, some who are unmoved by moral arguments on climate change become rather proactive when they recognise the reality of such a severe impending threat to their way of life.

Activists on peak oil and climate change should be indistinguishable - it really is one problem, and we all need to be working together to ensure that the motivation it generates is channelled in the most constructive directions.