Fabius Maximus Blog.

This is the second post in a series examining “urban legends” about energy that comfort Americans. These comforting myths about unconventional and alternative energy sources provide excuses for avoidign the hard work of gathering information, analysis, planning, and executing programs necessary to prepare for the multi-decade transition through peak oil to the next era (whatever that will be). {The opening was re-written to better show the structure of the series}

These five myths are:

I. Our massive reserves of unconventional oil.
II. We’ll run crash programs for adaptation just as we mobilized for WWII.
III. Demand creates supply, by raising prices.
IV. Oil is Oil, even if it is not oil.
V. Demand creates supply, from new technology.

Unfortunately, we can rely on none of these. Certainly they are not substitutes for intense research and planning, which is how they are used today. As I have described at length in previous posts, we know astonishingly little about our available energy resources, consumption patterns, and alternatives. Nor has the available information been collected, analyzed, and used for models and simulations — the foundation of good planning. News reports said that the resent satellite interception cost $125 million; one-tenth of that could fund a multi-disciplinary project that would help plan a sound future for America’s energy supply. Instead we rely on inspired guessing.

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