Dismantle Civilisation Rotating Header Image

‘The absurdity of endless economic growth’

David Suzuki on how economic growth is flawed and can’t continue:

Have you noticed that we describe the market and economy as if they were living entities? The market is showing signs of stress. The economy is healthy. The economy is on life support.

Sometimes, we act as if the economy is larger than life. In the past, people trembled in fear of dragons, demons, gods, and monsters, sacrificing anything— virgins, money, newborn babies—to appease them. We know now that those fears were superstitious imaginings, but we have replaced them with a new behemoth: the economy.

Even stranger, economists believe this behemoth can grow forever. Indeed, the measure of how well a government or corporation is doing is its record of economic growth. But our home—the biosphere, or zone of air, water, and land where all life exists—is finite and fixed. It can’t grow. And nothing within such a world can grow indefinitely. In focusing on constant growth, we fail to ask the important questions. What is an economy for? Am I happier with all this stuff? How much is enough?

A timely new book by York University environmental economist Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Design, Not Disaster, addresses the absurdity of an economic system based on endless growth. Dr. Victor also shows that the concept of growth as an indispensable feature of economics is a recent phenomenon.

The economy is not a force of nature—some kind of immutable, infallible entity. We created it and, when cracks appear, it makes no sense to simply shovel on more money to keep it going. Because it’s a human invention, an economy is something we should be able to fix—but if we can’t, we should toss it out and replace it with something better.

This current economic crisis provides an opportunity to re-examine our priorities. For decades, scientists and environmentalists have been alarmed at global environmental degradation. Today, the oceans are depleted of fish while “dead zones”, immense islands of plastic, and acidification from dissolving carbon dioxide are having untold effects. We have altered the chemistry of the atmosphere with our emissions, causing the planet to heat up, and have cleared land of forests, along with hundreds of thousands of species. Using air, water, and soil as dumps for our industrial wastes, we have poisoned ourselves.

For the first time in four billion years of life on Earth, one species has become so powerful and plentiful that it is altering the physical, chemical, and biological features of the planet on a geological scale. And so we have to ask, “What is the collective impact of everyone in the world?” We’ve never had to do that before and it’s difficult. Even when we do contemplate our global effects, we have no mechanism to respond as one species to the crises.

Driving much of this destructive activity is the economy itself. Years ago, during a heated debate about clear-cutting, a forest-company CEO yelled at me, “Listen, Suzuki: Are tree huggers like you willing to pay to protect those trees? Because if you’re not, they don’t have any value until someone cuts them down!” I was dumbstruck with the realization that in our economic system, he was correct.

You see, as long as that forest is intact, the plants photosynthesize and remove carbon dioxide from the air while putting oxygen back—not a bad service for animals like us that depend on clean air. However, economists dismiss this as an “externality”. What they mean is that photosynthesis is not relevant to the economic system they’ve created!

Those tree roots cling to the soil, so when it rains the soil doesn’t erode into the river and clog the salmon-spawning gravels, another externality to economists. The trees pump hundreds of thousands of litres of water out of the soil, transpiring it into the air and modulating weather and climate—an externality. The forest provides habitat to countless species of bacteria, fungi, insects, mammals, amphibians, and birds—externality. So all the things an intact ecosystem does to keep the planet vibrant and healthy for animals like us are simply ignored in our economy. No wonder futurist Hazel Henderson describes conventional economics as “a form of brain damage”.

Nature’s services keep the planet habitable for animals like us and must become an integral component of a new economic structure. We must get off this suicidal focus on endless, mindless growth.


We agree – endless economic growth is illogical in a finite world and ultimately a suicidal act for our species.  In order to cut our impact on the planet, it’s not enough just to conserve resources, make things more efficient and promise targets in emissions cuts.  If economic growth continues, all these efforts will be in vain as the global economy grows and inevitably creates a greater impact than what was previously conserved.  The cries for a Green New Deal tend to ignore this, instead hoping technological miracles will allow endless growth on less resources.  But this is impossible, and instead of demanding the governments to use this Green New Deal Greenwash, we need to start creating the local, steady-state economies that will be the future.  The governments and corporations won’t and can’t do that for us – it’s up to us to withdraw as much as possible from the growth system and instead put our energy into the sustainable, no-growth alternatives.

Share

How #Not# to bring down the Banking System

RBS City Branch at the G20 protests

RBS City Branch at the G20 protests

In an attack reminiscent of the scenes at the Royal Bank of Scotland branch in the City of London during the G20 protests, anarchists in Brighton have attacked and smashed the windows of an RBS branch claiming that “With this action we want to increase the rage against the capitalist system”.  This is born of a growing anti-capitalist movement against the banks and financial institutions that brought this economic crisis upon us, and many see it as a route to bring that system down.  However, the attacks these people have used are a particularly ineffective way to express their professed rage against this system, and actions such as this will not contribute to changing the system at all – in fact it could even work against it, with public opinion decidedly against seemingly random vandalism.

These acts are undoubtedly the result of true anger and rage against an economic system that puts profit and growth above people and planet, that rewards its bankster leaders with pensions vastly bigger than what most people have to scrape by on, and is then bailed out along with many other similarily corrupt institutions by these people’s taxes.  But vandalism such as this is a particularly unarticulated expression of this anger, and is ultimately an insignificant act that will only serve to briefly quench their desire for retribution.  It certainly doesn’t bother the bank itself much – they have enough taxpayers money to reglaze their stores indefinitely.  Indeed, the perpetrators don’t even pretend it will, instead seemingly hoping that this will increase other people’s rage against the system.  Unfortunately I suspect the vast majority of the public, many of whom may indeed share the same anger, will be put off by such acts by what they may perceive as violent thugs, rather than be encouraged by it to change the system.  And if we want to change the world, it’s the public we need to start convincing and not the small numbers of those hardcore anarchists with smashing tendencies.

So how can we really change the banking system?  A physical act is tempting and works well in revolutionary fantasies, but in our situation as I have described it is generally only symbolic and even counter-productive.  However, there is a much easier and perfectly legal way to direct your anger against and weaken those banks and financial institutions that prop up the system we work against, one so simple it’s staggering so few people have suggested it – stop giving them your money.  They need regular depositors like us to keep feeding in capital which they can then multiply vastly using various financial tricks to trade across the world and fund continued growth.  Why should we keep funding infinite economic growth when we know how its destroying people and planet?  Why should we willingly be giving them the money to do this?  Complete removal from the banking system may be difficult and currently impractical for most, but reducing the amount of money we stash away in the big corporate banks, investing some of that money in useful equipment necessary for the coming transition as well as for courses to reskill, and shifting the remains to more ethical and local establishments can start the process.

I’m not claiming this will bring down any banks any time soon, but funding the very system we wish to dismantle is counter-productive, and even if a trickle of people start to reduce their connection with the globalised financial webs that create continued growth it will start to help reduce their power.  It’s certainly more effective than smashing a few windows in the night, and is legal too.  So let’s stop funding civilisation’s grip on this planet, and get on with funding a new localised stable economy instead!

Share

BBC Dig In

The BBC have launched a campaign called Dig In via some of its shows to get people growing their own veg, and are giving out seeds and informatin packs as part of it.  If you haven’t got into Growying Your Own yet and want some free seeds and easy-to-follow advice, then sign up and get growing!  Growing your own food and learning the skills associated with gardening are a vital part of getting back in touch with nature and reclaiming the food chain from the corporations (even if this campaign is funded by another corporation – think of acquiring seeds from them as taxpayer subsidies for your subversion of the food supply!).  Even if you are growing already, some free seeds wouldn’t go amiss…

——–EDIT:  The campaign has been so oversuscribed that it appears they have already run out of free seeds – unfortunate for anyone here intending to get them, but good news at how popular local food growing is becoming!  My point regarding starting up a veg garden still stands though – it’s springtime, so get growing! ——–

Share

A Farm for the Future

‘A Farm for the Future’ is the BBC’s recent excellent documentary on Peak Oil and its effects on farming, leading to the promotion of Permaculture (all of which happened at 8pm on a Friday evening, so a good visible slot for the masses!). I’ve included some blurb from Chris Vernon of The Oil Drum written just before broadcast below as an intro:

On Friday the BBC will be broadcasting an excellent peak oil documentary; it focuses on farming. Presenter and co-producer Rebecca Hosking explores the importance of oil in farming and the potential impact of peak oil. The film has a passionate narrative centred on Rebecca’s small family farm in South West England; can she make her farm fit for the future?

The subject mater is top notch. Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg contribute, permaculture, forest gardens, gardening vs farming, biofuels, biodiversity, industrial farming and no-till farming are all covered. It seems certain that present methods cannot go on feeding Britain as they are highly dependent on fossil-fuel. The film concentrates on the necessity to find a new way to feed the nation.

Above all, the presentation comes from the heart. It is sure to capture the imagination of many people who, not least due to the deepening recession, are primed for new ideas like never before.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about this film is that it exists at all. Within the BBC, the Natural History Unit is one of the most conservative. The producers of ‘A Farm for the Future’ had a tremendous struggle getting this film made. BBC executives were not keen; the big global travellers even called the film “messed up propaganda”. However two years after I met with co-producer Tim Green at the inception of the film; it does now exist. The hope is that with the Natural History Unit producing a film with peak oil at its heart, the gates are now open to all the other departments such as News at Ten, Panorama, Horizon etc. to cover peak oil. There is knowledge and understanding of peak oil within the BBC but also nervousness about reporting.

Rebecca and Tim would like to thank the community here at The Oil Drum for providing much of the information needed to make this possible.

Share

Every hour should be Earth Hour

Here’s the Unsuitablog’s response to another farce going on this Saturday – WWF’s ‘Earth Hour‘:

Apparently, on March 28, millions of people will be turning off their lights for an hour, for Earth Hour. Yes, a whole hour when all sorts of really green places, like Las Vegas, New York and San Francisco, will be flicking off the lights in symbolic venues and, an hour later, turning them all on again, just to show that Industrial Civilization doesn’t really give a f*** about the planet, but likes a good joke: like the joke of Alanis Morrisette flicking her toenails in the tumbler of her fellow airline passenger.

Like the joke that you can be an airline passenger and, at the same time, talk about saving energy.

Like the joke that trivial, symbolic activities, such as Earth Hour do anything other than make people think they have done something worthwhile.

Stop messing about with trivia and do something real.

Much like the pointless Earth Day, this event will serve no real benefit to the planet.  The few kilos of carbon potentially saved from entering the atmosphere will be more than made up for as civilisation continues to plunder the planet and economic growth outstrips any carbon saving.   This is meant to raise awareness about the environment, yet will in fact only reinforce the idea that all that needs to be done to solve this crisis is some simple conservation and efficiency measures, whilst continuing with business as usual.  And all this for one pitiful hour!  Doesn’t the earth deserve more than just one hour, or even one day?  Isn’t it always earth time anyway, or are we meant to only get away with being aware of our life support system for an hour a year?  If you want to show the world you really care about is future, take part in the dismantling of the systems that are threatening it – help bring down the growth system and dismantle civilisation.  Every hour is Earth Hour, and every day is Earth Day!

Share

You want to ‘Put People First’? Then Dismantle Civilisation!

The time of the G20 summit in London approaches, where the leaders of the 22 nations that make up the vast majority of world GDP are meeting to discuss the economic crisis as well as free trade, climate change and other current crucial issues. As per usual, a series of counter-protests have been organised by various groupings, from liberal to anarchist. One of these groups calling itself ‘Put People First’ is a joint collaboration between many high profile charities, unions and environmental organisations, and is marching through London this Saturday to put their message of putting people and planet first in this crisis across. Sounds promising, but let’s take a look at their policy platform in more detail.

The global financial and economic system is in crisis.

Existing economic policies and institutions have overseen an economic system scarred by high levels of poverty and inequality, which is contributing to an environmental catastrophe.

There can be no return to business as usual. Fundamental change is needed.

We call on the UK government to show its commitment to putting people first by signalling an historic break with the failed policies of the past, and the start of a new system that seeks to make the economy work for people and the planet.

A good start – we agree that the current economic system is driving the environmental catastrophe and leads to unjust distributions of wealth. Business as usual must be eliminated and a new system built. But this is where we part ways – this grouping has unfortunately fallen prey to the Green Growth mantra which is now gaining currency in the mainstream environmental movement, which I’ve written about previously. Here are some of their specific demands:

Ensure a massive investment in a green new deal to build a green economy based on decent work and fair pay.

In addition to the green new deal (recommendation 4), introduce the robust regulatory requirements and financial incentives needed to deliver a green economy.

Nowhere do they mention the problems created by growth – a green economy is simply seen as one with some more investment in renewables and other green technologies with a nod to fair pay and greater equality. Out of the long list of groups supporting this manifesto, apparently not one has considered looking even slightly deeper at the links between the economy and environmental destruction. How can a finite planet support the infinite growth demanded by civilisation? Unless environmentalists can answer this satisfactorily, their support of green growth and a green new deal based on it is misplaced.

Push for a deal at Copenhagen to agree substantial, verifiable cuts in greenhouse gases, which will limit temperature increases to well below 2°C.

How do they think we can keep temperature increases below 2°C if they’re implicitly supporting continued economic growth that will inevitably produce more greenhouse gases? The claims that efficiency and technology will keep emissions down, and even reach zero-carbon levels, are hopelessly naïve – unless these receive massive investment (which looks unlikely in the status-quo) and ultimately break the laws of physics to keep up with the exponentially increasing rate of growth. As a result, if you want to keep temperature rises below 2°C, supporting the growth system is not tenable. Have these groups considered this? Unlikely.

Deliver 0.7% of national income as aid by 2013, deliver aid more effectively and push for the cancellation of all illegitimate and unpayable developing country debts.

Although the cancellation of debts is a must, this statement implicitly supports the status-quo of aid dependency, rather than changing the entire system in which developing countries have their natural resources extracted for the benefit of western nations. Aid for natural disasters is justified, but keeping nations dependent on aid allows this plunder to continue. The globalised economy has shackled these countries into poverty, and so must be destroyed to free them.

‘Put People First’, despite their promising message that the current economic system is flawed, are in fact promoting the same system repackaged with a big green stamp on the box. The message their putting out does not match their rhetoric on putting people and planet first in this crisis – they are in fact peddling the rhetoric of the growing movement to create a ‘Green Growth economy’, they’re helping to greenwash civilisation. This blog has and will continue to make clear how Green Growth is a nonsensical farce, and how the mainstream environmental movement in pursuing it will not help either people or planet.

We would very much advise against marching for this manifesto, and instead take some positive actual action this Saturday – start a vegetable garden, join local groups, form a co-op, subvertise the media, or anything else regularly suggested here. If you still have the protest bug, the climate campers are taking on the carbon trading scam and the growth system at the European Climate Exchange on Wednesday, whilst others are marching on the Bank of England. The symbolic nature and utility of these protests can be debated, but they’re closer to the mark than the misnamed ‘Put People First’ marchers. We propose that ultimately the only way to put people first is to stop the growth system and dismantle civilisation, and the best place to start is in your own life and backyard.

Share

Public Money for Private Greenwash

The UK government yet again showing their ‘green’ spirit:  Government gives Land Rover £27m for green 4×4

The UK government has offered Jaguar Land Rover a grant of up to £27m towards the production of a new “green” 4×4 model.

Business Secretary Peter Mandelson said: “The Government is fully committed to supporting the UK automotive industry as it moves to a lower carbon future. This project aims to design and build a greener car in the UK, safeguarding vital skills and technologies.

Land Rover, not satisfied with some of their previous greenwashing gems , have managed to persuade the government to use taxpayers money (so your money) to fund their private greenwash.  £27million that could have funded projects directly benefiting the environment, instead going straight to a private corporation in order to sells us a ‘green 4×4′.  The fact that a green 4×4 in the true sense of sustainability is impossible, and that what this really achieves is a nod to green issues in order to sell cars, seems to be of no importance to the government, as all they really want  is to continue with the status quo of mass car production and use.

So don’t be surprised if your money is for now on used to subsidise greenwash (especially as Mandelsons quote seems to suggest for thw whole car industry), the government have as much invested in creating these lies as much as the corporations.  It’s our job to realise, uncover and sabotage this hypocrisy, and show the government that we don’t approve of public money being thrown at private greenwash.

Share

A Convenient Lie – ‘Green Growth’ will save the Planet

If you ever needed proof of how far the majority of the environmental movement is from figuring out the core truths of the ecological and social catastrophe facing this planet, it can be found in this article written by former US Vice-President Al Gore and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Indeed, the very title of this article gives away its central flaw: “Green growth is essential to any stimulus”. The concept of ‘Green Growth’ is so far removed from what this planet needs right now, and ranks as one of the greatest oxymorons ever created, that anyone familiar with this and other rewilding sites would find it laughable. Yet this concept is gaining currency within the environmental movement, with many promoting a ‘Green New Deal’ which they promise will sort out the economy, environment, social and any other problems you care to mention. We, however, challenge this growing acceptance that growth and capitalism have a future on this planet – to survive, we must tear down and dismantle the old ways, not just apply an extra-thick coating of greenwash onto them. Let’s analyse this article and show it for what it really is.

Economic stimulus is the order of the day. This is as it must be, as governments around the world struggle to jump-start the global economy. But even as leaders address the immediate need to stimulate the economy, so too must they act jointly to ensure that the new de facto economic model being developed is sustainable for the planet and our future on it.

It immediately begins with a dichotomy – they say the new economic model must be sustainable, yet they also encourage the ‘immediate’ stimulation of the old unsustainable economy. No questions are asked as to what governments are attempting to stimulate or jump-start, just the suggestion that whatever it is it better be more sustainable. What if the very thing they’re jump-starting is the definition of unsustainable? Shouldn’t it be left to die in that case?

What we need is both stimulus and long-term investments that accomplish two objectives simultaneously with one global economic policy response – a policy that addresses our urgent and immediate economic and social needs and that launches a new green global economy. In short, we need to make “growing green” our mantra

So as long as the old way – growth – is made to be ‘green’, apparently we can solve all our economic, social and environmental woes. No questioning of that old concept, just the tacking on of an environmentally friendly adjective. “Growing green” may be their mantra, but the first word is by far the most important and unquestionable, joined only in a forced marriage with ‘green’ in order to let growth continue that little bit longer.

In Washington last November, G20 leaders expressed their determination “to enhance co-operation and work together to restore global growth and achieve needed reforms in the world’s financial systems”. This needs to happen urgently.

Within a paragraph the principal focus on growth is clearly illustrated. As I have explained in the article ‘The Fallacy of Growth’, and is repeatedly plugged at this and other similar sites, the concept of growth is NOT compatible with anything remotely ‘green’. As the economy/civilisation grows, it must consume more resources and ultimately more energy. The power of Compound Interest ensures that this increases exponentially over time, putting an ever increasing pressure on the planet at an ever increasing rate. Making efficiency cuts and conserving energy does produce a lesser burden, but as long as we maintain a system of growth this saving will be overtaken and lost within a matter of years at this point in history. They can promote efficiency and conservation as much as they like, but as long as they maintain growth it will all be in vain – the only way to conclusively reduce our impact on the earth’s ecosystem is to remove growth. The old economic system of civilisation needs to be dismantled and replaced with stable, local and sustainable economies pioneered by the people they are meant to benefit.

This stimulus, along with new initiatives by other countries, must help catapult the world economy into the 21st century, not perpetuate the dying industries and bad habits of yesteryear. Indeed, continuing to pour trillions of dollars into carbon-based infrastructure and fossil-fuel subsidies would be like investing in subprime real estate all over again.

We agree, the dying industries and bad habits of yesteryear should not be perpetuated! It’s a shame that despite this logical statement, they undermine it by their support for the vast majority of those bad habits.

Therefore, governments in industrialised countries must reach beyond their borders and invest immediately in those cost-effective programmes that boost the productivity of the poorest. Last year, food riots and unrest swept more than 30 countries. Ominously, this was even before September’s financial implosion, which sparked the global recession that has driven a further 100m people deeper into poverty. We must act now to prevent further suffering and potential widespread political instability.

Note how they propose helping the poor by boosting their productivity, rather than questioning and dismantling the system that ensures their continued poverty and enslaves them to scour the earth’s remaining wealth to end up in the pockets of the few. These people won’t benefit from growth, their extra productivity will be funnelled up the pyramid scheme of our economy. To prevent further suffering their economic cage needs to be broken, not remade. Instead, a minute increase in living standards in the cage is proposed to stave off political instability – which one might translate as uprisings against this enslavement. Ban Ki-moon and Al Gore are not as concerned by the welfare of the poor – although I’m sure they do feel concern – as they would be by a revolution against the system.

It means investing in agriculture in developing countries by getting seeds, tools, sustainable agricultural practices and credit to smallholder farmers so they can produce more food and get it to local and regional markets.

A token of sustainability and a nod to smallholders is somewhat undermined by their support for the economic order which has seen agriculture ever further industrialised, made unsustainable to dangerous levels and destroyed the small farmer in favour of the large agribusinesses.

Third, we need a robust climate deal in Copenhagen in December. Not next year. This year. The climate negotiations must be dramatically accelerated and given attention at the highest levels, starting today. A successful deal in Copenhagen offers the most potent global stimulus package possible. With a new climate framework in hand, business and governments will finally have the carbon price signal businesses have been clamouring for, one that can unleash a wave of innovation and investment in clean energy. Copenhagen will provide the green light for green growth. This is the basis for a truly sustainable economic recovery that will benefit us and our children’s children for decades to come.

A truly sustainable economic recovery via the medium of growth is ultimately impossible. Copenhagen has become a poster-boy for green capitalism and its neat solutions like carbon trading (a growth market!), and will hardly be a robust climate deal. More a deal between members of the elite to create new exploitative markets but with the words ‘climate’ and ‘carbon’ tacked on and some conservation measures to let the party continue that little bit longer. Copenhagen will be a farce, the little advances that may be made with deforestation cuts for example will be overshadowed by the unquestioned commitment to growth. Copenhagen will be a landmark moment not for the climate or saving the earth, but for human stupidity. And Al Gore and Ban Ki-moon will be there to lead the cheerleading squad.

Share

Earth Day Hypocrisy

Keith Farnish on the hypocrisy of the annual greenwashing event known as ‘Earth Day’:

I want you to forget about April 22, 2009. Just do whatever you normally do on that day; don’t write anything in your diary; don’t put a circle round the date on your calendar; don’t make a special effort to talk about the environment. Why should you? If you are not a hypocrite then Earth Day will mean nothing special to you because like all other days it will just be sustainable living as usual.

Alternatively – like the idiot businessman who gives up his daily aircraft commute to “respect the Earth”, but just on that one day – you could treat it as something special, a day to make huge symbolic waves that, miraculously, make no one wet, and leave no one with a long-lasting feeling that they are living lives that are not their own. If you think I’m being overly cynical, don’t forget that Earth Day 2008 was a horror story of excessive consumption on behalf of The Planet™, and it is looking like Earth Day 2009 is going to be even worse:

April 22 will mark Earth Day, an annual event celebrated around the world as the greenest of holidays. Established in 1970, it was created to call attention to the environment.

Earth Day coverage has grown exponentially over the past decade and will get substantial coverage in most media outlets — including national television, radio, newspaper, magazines, blogs, etc.

Earth Day creates an excellent opportunity for companies to promote their environmental activities and concerns to a broad base, as well as to their local community.

What will your company do for Earth Day to stand out to its base and capture the attention of its public? How will you let your customers, prospects, employees and/or shareholders know about your efforts to reduce carbon emissions, use more eco-friendly materials, reduce waste in packaging, start a recycling campaign, cut emissions, etc?

My suggestion: Don’t forget the kids. Children are Our Future.

A national research study commissioned by the National Environmental Education Training Foundation noted that children placed the environment third in a list of 10 issues behind only AIDS and kidnapping. This contrasts greatly with adults, for whom the economy, crime, and drugs are of greater concern. Children worry about long-term issues such as damage to the ozone layer and destruction of the rain forest.

Did you know that 99% of children in America today have access to environmental classes in school, and 31 states require schools to incorporate environmental concepts into virtually every subject in all grade levels?

Reach out to children. Children have influence over parents’ buying habits. as well as being an influencing force for recycling and conservation activities.

If you have a local business, work with a school district and get imprinted eco-friendly promotional items, which are educational, into the students’ hands. Try to target elementary or middle schools for best response and maximum impact.

I genuinely feel sick, reading this. I encourage you to post your own blogs, and send your own letters in about what you think of this kind of cynical, bloated marketing behaviour. Earth Day has become the perfect example of why business has no place in the future of this planet!

The fact that corporations can get away with this greenwashing tripe shows how far removed much of the ‘green’ movement is from realising the truth behind the problems this planet is facing – that economic growth and civilisation itself is unsustainable and must be dismantled and replaced.  Green technology or Green capitalism cannot and will not get us out of this mess, only a true systemic revolution to reclaim the earth from those who wish to profit from its demise whilst disguising it with greenwashing such as ‘Earth Day’.  I reccomend a visit to Keith’s blog ‘The Unsuitablog‘, which exposes greenwashing in all its forms, for inspiration on how to oppose green hypocrisy.  Let’s not let them get away with this greenwash!

Share

Predictions for 2009

Gail from The Oil Drum has once again made some predictions for the New Year, and based on the uncanny accuracy of the previous years, it is certainly worth a read as an intelligent and well researched outlook. It primarily focuses on the economy, but does delve into the social effects of the predictions as well as provide background to the problems of a debt-funded economy:

4. My forecast for 2009.

It looks to me as though that we are due for a debt unwind, and with it a rapid decline in the US standard of living. Exactly what form it will take, and what the timing will be (for example, sudden one month from now or sudden three years from now, or gradual over a longer period), isn’t certain. I would expect that many (or most) other economies in the world will be dragged along in this debt unwind and will experience a decline in their standards of living.

As I note in the Section 1 discussing why so many asset classes are correlated in time of stress, the tower of debt (Figure 1) has many feedback loops, and tends to magnify the economy’s reaction to events, both favorable and unfavorable. When consumer debt is rising it tends to make the economy look very, very good. When there are layoffs, the interrelationships tend to magnify the impact, making the economic impact much worse. One wonders whether there are tipping points, beyond which it is not really possible for the system to recover–particularly now that the US seems to be at the point of “peak energy” (Section 3), energy is required for growth (Section 3), and growth is required to allow debt to continue (Section 2).

The tower of debt is in some ways deceptive. It can make the economy look mostly OK to the casual observer, until all too quickly, things start to fall apart.

So far, the “fixes” that the US government has been attempting seem mostly counterproductive. Putting government guarantees behind more and more debt (thus stacking Figure 1 higher and higher, with a new TARP layer) just increases the likelihood that the US government will be drawn into the downward spiral. The financial services layer will be less and less needed in years ahead, as our need for debt-based products declines. Bailing it out does not help get additional income to ordinary workers (although it may temporarily protect them from losing their bank account balances).

I expect that essentially all aspects of finances will be affected by the unwind of debt. A huge amount of debt will be defaulted on (or will be forgiven, so that an actual default does not need to occur). Regardless of whether the non-payment occurs because of default or forgiveness, the effect on financial institutions will be the same. Financial institutions such as banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and many hedge funds will find themselves in poor financial condition, because they were depending on the proceeds of this debt repayment to fund what they have promised–bank account balances; insurance policies; pension payments; or hedge fund returns. Institutions guaranteeing debt, such as monoline bond insurers will be particularly hard hit. The FDIC will likely be called on to rescue many failed banks, and will need to find funds from some source (printed money?) to do this.

As the year goes on, I expect each evaluation of where we are to be worse. Banks will report operating losses each quarter. Fannie and Freddie will need more funds than originally thought. TARP will need more funds than original planned. More and more businesses will enter bankruptcy, and more and more governments (states, cities, counties, and countries around the world) will find themselves unable to meet their obligations. There are a huge number of inter-relationships, and the bankruptcies and losses in one area will tend to cause more bankruptcies and losses in other areas, and act to destabilize the debt tower.

Debt of all forms will be very difficult to obtain, except through government sources. The interest rate the US government is currently paying is very low, mainly because of a “flight to quality”. If the US government keeps issuing more and more debt, it seems likely that at some point this will change, because buyers will figure out that even if the US is the best of a bad lot, its risk of failure is significantly greater than 0%.

I do not expect a steep rise in the price of oil and natural gas in the next year, because the decline in demand is likely to outpace the decline in production in the short-term. If we look back at Figure 2, I expect that funds available to ordinary citizens will continue to decline in 2009, even considering any stimulus plan. This will happen because employee compensation will decline due to layoffs. Household debt outstanding will also decline (rather than just stay flat, as it has in the past year), because of the poor financial condition of lending institutions, and because with the poor economy, the risk of borrower default will be quite high, discouraging lending. A $300 billion stimulus program will be tiny in comparison to the boost the economy got in the past from increasing debt and greater refinancing (up to $2 trillion per year), as the prices of homes increased. With lower incomes, lower (actually net negative) cash flow from borrowing, and only a modest boost from a stimulus program, citizens will have less and less to spend on goods and services.

I think there is a distinct possibility that this could all end very badly. One possibility is that there will be more and more defaults, and the US government will not be able to prop up all of the institutions and will eventually default on its debt. While this seems to be the direction things are headed at the current time, the much more usual outcome is hyperinflation, caused by printing more and more money, wiping out the value of people’s savings and pensions. Situations such as these are often accompanied by a new government (including a new constitution), and may even include different country boundaries (for example, Soviet Union after its fall).

Many people have started making preparation for the time when food needs to be produced locally and electricity is often not available. I would not discourage such preparations. While we do not know that the economy will collapse completely, I think such preparations are prudent, in the face of rising risk. Preparation for a major change takes many years, so starting earlier rather than later makes sense. Also, with the tower of debt (Figure 1) and the many feedback loops, the downward spiral can happen more quickly than our prior experience suggests is possible.

To solve our current financial problems, I expect that the United States (and other countries) will ultimately need a new financial system that is much less debt based. Such a system might start simply as ration coupons for food and energy products, and gradually be expanded to replace our current monetary system. Debt forgiveness and derivative write downs will also probably need to be part of the solution, but with the caveat that debt forgiveness and derivative write downs can be expected to have just as adverse an effect on the balance sheets of financial institutions as outright defaults. In conclusion, 2009 looks like to be a very challenging year for the new administration and for the world as a whole.

As the debt-based economy comes under ever greater strain, it is clear that its final collapse is coming ever closer.  The ability to be ready and adapt to this eventuality can be our advantage, an opportunity to forge a new zero-growth, localised and ultimately sustainable economy. Local community, initiative and currencies may prove crucial for this coming year, and we need to be ready to seize this opportunity.

Share